Can We Grow Enough Food To Feed The World?
Can We Grow Enough Food To Feed The World is a fair question to ask and one that is probably on the minds of many.
According to National Geographic and its resources...It is estimated that world population will be at 9 Billion plus by the year 2050.
“The environmental challenges posed by agriculture are huge, and they’ll only become more pressing as we try to meet the growing need for food worldwide. We’ll likely have two billion more mouths to feed by mid-century, more than nine billion people."
"...But sheer population growth isn’t the only reason we’ll need more food. The spread of prosperity across the world, especially in China and India, is driving an increased demand for meat, eggs, and dairy, boosting pressure to grow more corn and soybeans to feed more cattle, pigs and chickens.If these trends continue, the double whammy of population growth and richer diets will require us to roughly double the amount of crops we grow by 2050.”
Yikes!
I never really thought about the ‘double whammy effect’ i.e. the spread of prosperity across the under served world leading to the demand for richer diets.
Addressing this challenge has become somewhat polarized pitting conventional agriculture and global commerce against local food systems and organic farms.
Those who favor conventional agriculture stand behind modern mechanization, irrigation, fertilizers and improved genetics to increase yields. Proponents of local and organic farms counter that the world’s small farmers could increase yields and help themselves out of poverty by adopting techniques that improve fertility without fertilizers and pesticides.
Both approaches can offer badly needed solutions because neither one alone has enough to get us there. It is no new revelation that we need to increase the availability and supply of food while simultaneously cutting the environmental harm caused by agriculture.
Did you know that Agriculture is among the greatest contributors to global warming, emitting more greenhouse gasses than all of our cars, trucks, trains and airplanes combined. Apparently this is largely due to methane released by cattle and rice farms, nitrous oxide released from fertilized fields and carbon dioxide released from the cutting of rain forests to grow crops or raise livestock.
Suggestions From some Authorities in the Field...
Step One: Freeze the Agriculture Footprint.
Avoiding further deforestation must become a top priority. An area roughly the size of South America has already been cleared to grow crops. An area roughly the size of Africa has been taken over to raise livestock.
Step Two: Grow more on Farms we already have.
Using high-tech, precision farming systems, as well as approaches borrowed from organic farming could boost yields on less productive farmlands, especially in Africa, Latin America and Easter Europe where there are “yield Gaps” between current production levels and those possible with improved farming practices (see Bill Gates’ thoughts below).
Step Three: Use resources more efficiently. “More Crop for Drop.”
Commercial farming is making huge strides finding innovative ways to better target the application of fertilizers and pesticides. Tractors are now equipped with advanced sensors and GPS and many growers apply customized blends of fertilizer to exact soil conditions which helps minimize chemical runoff into nearby waterways.
Organic farming continues to improve by incorporating cover crops, mulches and compost to improve soil quality, conserve water and build up nutrients. Inefficient irrigation systems are being replaced with more precise methods including subsurface drip irrigation.
Step Four: Shift Diets.
Some of the stats that I’m going to share with you below, I was not completely aware of myself. I did not know that it would be easier to feed nine billion people by 2050 if more of the crops we grow ended up in human stomachs.
“…Today, only 55 percent of the world’s crop calories feed people directly; the rest are fed to livestock (about 36%) or turned into bio fuels and industrial products (roughly 9%). Though many of us consume meat, dairy and eggs from animals raised on feedlots, only a fraction of the calories in feed given to livestock make their way into the meat and milk that we consume.”
For every 100 calories of grain we feed animals, we only get back:
- About 40 new calories of Milk;
- About 22 calories of Eggs;
- About 12 calories of Chicken;
- About 10 calories of Pork; and
- About 3 calories of Beef.
Seems to me that finding more efficient ways to grow meat and shifting to less meat intensive diets would make sense. Even just switching from ‘grain-fed’ beef to meats like chicken, pork or pasture-raised beef (whatever happened to pasture-raised beef), could free up substantial amounts of food across the world.
“…Because people in developing countries are unlikely to eat less meat in the near future, given their new found prosperity, we can first focus on countries that already have meat rich diets. Curtailing the use of food crops for bio fuels could also go a long way towards enhancing food availability.”
Step Five: Reduce Waste.
It is estimated that 25 percent of the world’s food calories and up to 50 percent of total food weight are lost or wasted before they can be consumed.
In developed or so-called ‘rich countries.’ The majority of this waste occurs in homes, restaurants and supermarkets.
In poorer countries, food is often lost between the farmer and the market due to unreliable storage and transportation.
Consumers in the developed world could reduce waste by taking such simple steps as serving smaller portions, eating leftovers, and encouraging cafeterias, restaurants and supermarkets to develop waste reducing measures.
Of all of the options for boosting food availability, tackling waste would be one of the most effective. I speak from experience. I spent many years working in Hotels and restaurants.
Resources used for the above Information:
- National Geographic
- Institute on the Environment (University of Minnesota)
- The Rockefeller Foundation
...and says that fertilizer is a “…magical innovation that’s responsible for saving millions of lives from hunger and lifting millions more out of poverty by boosting agricultural productivity.”
He recently visited a warehouse in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania that is part of a new fertilizer distribution center and the largest of its kind in East Africa.
See the video here:
Mr. Gates believes that “…every ounce of fertilizer has the potential to transform lives in Africa. But that potential is only realized when it reaches the hands of the world’s poorest farmers – a challenge that’s proven difficult in Africa, where fertilizer use is low, and, as a result, agricultural productivity is too.”
See Chart Below:
He Goes on to say:
“…Cost is one of the biggest problems why fertilizer has not caught on in Africa. Poor roads and weak infrastructure is another. Weak distribution systems means lack of dependable supply. Limited access to credit prevents farmers from purchasing fertilizer even if it is available. Add to that a lack of agricultural training means that farmers may not see the value of investing in it or understand how to use it properly.”
The warehouse that Mr. Gates visited has a capacity of 350,000 metric tons. In 2016, all of Tanzania used only a total of 277,000 metric tons. That means that the supply is there to prevent any shortages and more warehouses are planned if the demand increases.
The warehouse is built by Yara, a Norwegian agricultural company. Yara works with the governement of Tanzania and dozens of other businesses and nonprofit organizations to stimulate demand for fertilizer by providing training to smallholder farmers on how to use it to boost crop yields.
According to Mr. Gates, 80 percent of Tanzania’s workforce is engaged in farming and related industries. He suggests that growing more food through greater fertilizer use would have a huge impact on the country’s prosperity.
“…What I saw at work in Tanzania is part of a broader effort underway in Africa to use agricultural as an engine to power economic growth across the continent. New innovations in farming – from better fertilizer and crops that are more productive, nutritious and drought and disease resistant – will make it possible for farmers to increase their yields in the years ahead. With greater productivity, farming families will be able to sell their surpluses to supplement their family’s diet with vegetables, eggs, milk and meat.”
I'm Confused...
So there you have it…a complete contradiction in terms...one side saying because of economic prosperity we will have challenges keeping up with the demand in diet for milk, eggs and meat from developing nations and the other saying that by increasing agricultural capacity in poorer nations the under served can now improve their lives with the addition of milk eggs and meat to their diets.
Kind of like the hamster in the wheel.
Why not just focus on reducing the waste. I know, too simple. (It is estimated that 25 percent of the world’s food calories and up to 50 percent of total food weight are lost or wasted before they can be consumed).
So, can we grow enough food to feed the world even when it reaches 9 billion in 2050?
I'm confident that we can but chances are we'll lose half of it if not more to waste in the process.
What are your thoughts?
Kindest regards from Canada.
Paul.
@PMindra
Recent Comments
38
You overlook the two big Cs, Climate Change & Conflict. Both are a massive challenge. I believe that within 30 years, food will be too expensive for most people to buy. Climate change is already stressing the mid-west and California. Conflict is preventing local ag in much of sub-Saharan Africa and a food blockade is being used as a tool for genocide in Yemen. Just a few examples of things we can expect in my grandchildren's lifetime.
Efficient local ag and people who grow their own food will be key to survival.
A low fat diet will not only make major improvements in our climate outlook, it will add a decade to your life.
To bring this back to IM, one of my niches is aquaculture. You can control the growing environment, grow 10x as much food / sq. ft. and use 90% less water. We need to scale up the use of aquaponics both on your Condo lanai and in commercial agriculture. You can go from a aquaculture herb garden on your kitchen sink to major agricultural production.
Hi, Bill.
You make some really valid points here. Thank you for taking the time to stop by and share your thoughts.
It all starts in our own back yards (or kitchen counter as you point out). If everyone did just a little bit, the overall effect could be huge.
Aquaculture is definitely a road worth travelling down.
Best wishes from Canada.
Paul.
OK, I'll start off with something that's not popular...but is indeed absolutely true: We are being fed a political agenda, with the help of MSM who's goal is to control our behavior for the sake of controlling our behavior and to take our hard earned money with science (think grants and the billions of dollars wasted) that does not show that human activity is causing climate change and can not stand up to critical review.
Now, having said that I await the comments that I've not been paying attention. Not true. The wrong question was asked. Instead of asking: what are humans doing to the climate; the better question would have been: is the climate changing.
I have no fears for my grandchildren or the rest of the world that we're going to run out of food. I'm more concerned about the money being syphoned down the human caused climate change hole and used for much more productive uses.
Hi again, Martin.
You are absolutely correct that we are and have been since the beginning of 'organized society' fed all kinds of agendas that are implemented solely for the outcome of control.
Main Stream Media is the weapon of choice.
Please forgive me Martin, but I did not understand the following:
"Now, having said that I await the comments that I've not been paying attention. Not true. The wrong question was asked. Instead of asking: what are humans doing to the climate; the better question would have been: is the climate changing."
I too, have no fears that we will run out of food...I think we have a surplus (problem lies with getting it to where it needs to be taken).
If I understand what you are saying correctly...the money that is being syphoned through the Climate Change [Conspiracy] could be put to better use.
If that in fact is your message then I could not agree with you more.
I really appreciate you taking the time to contribute.
Kindest regards,
Paul.
Hi, so other than blogging about growing food, is this a niche that you hope to monetize or did you just want to post about something you care about?
Hi, Martin.
This is a post about something that I care about.
Thank you for stopping by and leaving your thoughts.
Best wishes,
Paul.
I think that is an unfair question because it is a topic that we all need to know about and yes I am also passionate this topic also
Linda
It's all good Linda.
I did not think the question to be unfair.
Thanks again for taking the time to offer your thoughts.
Kindly appreciated.
Paul.
i reckon hydroponics is the way to go.
you can make any piece of land grow crops - by not using the soil.
you can grow upwards as well as horizontal.
crops can be grown closer together as they are not fighting for food and have shorter growth cycles, so you can grow more in a smaller space.
It does have downsides, that you need more training to get the system up and running and to get the optimum out of it.
but we need to do something now rather than waiting until it becomes more of a crisis.
should we change our diet? - are we capable of doing this - there is a lot of movement to the fact that we are really meat eaters and grains do not suit us.
so does that mean that hydroponics should grow the food for the meat and create robotic farms as in the usa. go upwards instead of horizontal.
phil
Good morning, Phil.
Thank you for taking the time for chiming in here. Much appreciated.
"Plenty" is a company that wants to build a giant indoor farm next to every major city (over 1 million people) in the world.
They build 100,000 square foot vertical-farming warehouses and their first is located in Kent, Washington. While many other vertical farm projects have come and gone, Plenty's goal is to grow 4.5 million pounds of greens per year.
They have solid backing including some through Amazon's Jeff Bezos’s investment firm. They even lured away the director of battery technology at Tesla, Kurt Kelty, to be executive of operations and development.
You can learn more about this project here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-09-06/this-high-tech-vertical-farm-promises-whole-foods-quality-at-walmart-prices
Another potential game changer that could provide solutions to 21st century global challenges of energy, climate and food security is Algae.
"...It grows 10 times more rapidly than terrestrial plants, and less than a tenth of the land is needed to produce an equivalent amount of biomass. It grows on non-productive and non-arable land, so it doesn't compete with other crops for land. Because it doesn't require fresh water, it can be fertilized more efficiently than land crops, and you can avoid the intensive water usage, wasteful fertilizer runoff, and downstream eutrophication associated with modern agriculture."
"..."By 2050 we will have 9.5 to 10 billion people in the world, and with algae, we've found a way to feed those people by producing a large amount of protein. Maybe we won't convince the Western world to change its diet immediately, but we do have a way to combat malnutrition in the developing world, and that alone makes it interesting," -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2018/06/15/see-how-algae-could-change-our-world/#2289dde63e46
Let's see what tomorrow brings but in the meantime we can all do our part by eliminating as much waste as possible.
Kindest regards from Canada.
Paul.
thanks for that Paul
I think it highlight one of the main problems with hydroponics or other systems which will work
the level of required upfront investment.
once this stage is overcome with individuals proving the system then the big guys will take interest and start the revolution.
but then mess it up and hold us to ransom!!
as you say - lets see what tomorrow brings
phil
Good Morning Paul,
Thank you for this great post. I have been writing about these things too. It seems there are 7000 forgotten crops that are being rediscovered. If this knowledge is spread it would mitigate hunger quite a bit. There are many solutions which, if done at the same time, could help the world and save our necks.
The problem is the money aspect. Sadly there is a tendency of a certain segment in our society which is only thinking about now and also about how much money can be made. No thoughts about health and neither our future generations. When I look at the whole I often think that it looks like a battle between good and bad.
Greetings from the south of Spain, Taetske
Good morning, Teatske.
How very nice of you to chime in with such a thoughtful comment.
I am aware of the 7000 or so forgotten crops and the over 1 million varieties of fruits and vegetables cataloged in European seed banks. Unfortunately only a handful of these will ever find their way to supermarket shelves.
Why?
In part, for the reasons which you have stated...the economics and greed.
What we find on our shelves right now are referred to as 'Modern Crops' and they make the cut because they boost the yields of large fields with minimal hassle. The man-made hybrids on our plates can typically grow throughout the year, adapt to different soils, and withstand diseases, pesticides and long periods of refrigeration.
Unfortunately, they lack one key quality...they don't taste like anything. The market currently rewards farmers for quantity, not quality. I can remember way back when, fruits and vegetables tasted like fruits and vegetables. Everything today just tastes like water. Even the meats do not taste of what they should be.
I managed to get get my hands on some heirloom tomatoe seeds this past season. They did not look stunningly pretty but boy, they tasted like tomatoes.
Let's see what the future holds.
Kindest regards from Canada.
Paul.
Good afternoon Paul,
In 1981, when I started on my Spanish farm I had my own, and awful experience with Roundup. That opened my eyes and I decided to go organic, no more pesticides on my land.
In the vegetable garden, during all those years, I have learned a lot, experimented also a lot and was so lucky to often have great things to eat. As you say, it might not look so pretty but the taste is great. Nothing beats a homegrown vegetable or fruit.
The future does not look good and we have to be aware of it. We also should all contribute with doing things on an individual level, like that the world would be a better place.
Greetings from the south of Spain, Taetske
It all starts in our own back yard, figuratively speaking, Taetske.
Do our little part in the scheme of things and collectively it becomes an overall power.
It's always nice to hear from you.
Kindest regards from Canada.
Paul.
We we decide that feeding all people is more important than eating meat, there is more than enough food, 80% of all crops is now used for feeding the animals, it's a matter of priorities
Good morning, Loes.
I agree with you that it is a matter of 'When.'
And, yes it is a matter of priorities as others including myself have remarked here.
Thank you for taking the time to chime in. Much appreciated.
Regards from Canada.
Paul.
Interesting side note: I was listening to dialogue between two 20-somethings referring to living on energy snacks: Trending away from the taking on traditional eating habits by supplying the daily requirements from these concentrated sources.
I have a feeling Paul a truer sense of what will evolve will take from all of these mentioned concepts and that this will indeed be motivated by the population demands as they explode.
One might also conceive that the climate or social landscape
of humanity in 2050 would be vastly different from it's current view for us. Forcing a wholly different urgency for resources upon those living in the time...i.e. What about Safe Water
Very thoughtful post, my friend...lol As I expected.
Happy to have you writing again.
David R.
Good morning, David.
How nice to wake up to your response.
I trust that you are well. All is good here.
Many a day have I wanted that magic bar or magic pill...you know the ones marked take two for breakfast, two for a late lunch and one for dinner (Laugh out loud). How convenient that would be.
Who knows what we are in for 30 years down the road. It is only natural that things will be vastly different in 2050 but hopefully by then Humanity will have become more Humane and the purpose will be to enrich rather than to destroy.
Obviously we are not there yet and still have a very long way to go. We can have (do have) more than enough food for everyone. The challenges lie in getting it out there. I see too many differing priorities at this time.
Thank you for chiming in. It means a lot coming from you.
Kindest regards from Canada.
Paul.
You are welcome,of course
A BIG Yes,to our availability of food and the need to focus on giving/managing to the worlds needs; to develop better means to minimize the waste, and to protect the natural habitats of plant and wildlife to honor a future populace...we are all in this together
Your point that keeps this possible: Our awareness/actions toward creating solutions...What are we engaging in on a personal, regional level? And how can we keep this in the priority category of the worlds focus
Our job as writers, concerned individuals, and focus communities
And thanks for bringing "Gates" into the conversation, certainly one of the heavyweights in the matter... Side note, I recently listened to a speaker regarding the ability of these corporate/financial to manifest change, in a modern day world.
...Ted Talks
Remain Brilliant you
David R.
Receiving some really nice feedback here.
You too, remain brilliant my friend and have a glorious day.
Paul.
Hi, Michael.
Nice of you to stop by.
You are completely correct. Not just in Ontario and Eastern Canada but all across.
In fact, the agriculture and agri-food industry contributes over $110 billion annually to Canada's gross domestic product (GDP).
Canada is the 5th largest agricultural exporter in the world and the industry employs 2.3 million Canadians.That is approximately 1 in 8 Canadians.
Famous for its Maple Syrup Canada produces about 75% of the world's maple syrup supply and is also its largest exporter.
Canada is also the largest producer of flaxseed, canola, pulses, oats and durum wheat.
Source: agriculture/government of Canada.
Paul.
Paul,
All I can say on this is I am glad I am in the
golden years of my life and will not be around
when 2050 finally arrives at least I do not think
I will be never can tell - Only the man upstairs
knows for sure.
But I have always thought about all the farms
we have laying around doing nothing here in
the United States because the government
actually pays them not to farm - What - yes
they get a subsidy from the government to
not farm!!
I have taken the time to teach my son how
to plant a garden and raise his own food and
to survive off the land - my grandson's know
how to do this as well.
Thanks for sharing and best wishes to all the
younger generations out there you need them :)
Susan
Hi, Susan.
I'm in the same boat that you are in as far as the years are concerned.
It is wonderful that you have taught others how to raise their own food. I had a wonderful harvest again this year from my garden.
It is indeed a shame that we have everything we need but choose to waste so much.
Thank you sincerely for taking the time to read this post and leaving your thoughts.
Best wishes to you also.
Paul.
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Hi Paul, informative information is the key to educating the world and I am all for that here at WA.I don't care if it might be your niche, because it is information that we all need to make a difference in the world and yes you are totally right wast is a very high on my list also.
When I throw out things in my kitchen I cringe and think about those that are with out that would have loved to have that wast. Even in the richest places of the world there is poverty.
I will be going down this Saturday to help feed some of the Homeless in our town. We are a small town of about 55,000 and there are homeless.
Just the thought of restaurants and the wast that is there because we can afford it, would feed the homeless here.
Salvation Army has two food drives a year which our church is involved in. and that isn't enough.
Yes, we have to start in the home and and teach our children. All the wast that is produced can go to composting. Home gardening is very necessary to look after ourselves.
This is a very large concern and I thank you for being passionate about it.
always a better way
sending blessings your way
Linda
Hi, Linda.
Thank you for stopping by to share your thoughts.
They are most valued.
As I indicated to Martin, this area is not my niche but is an area that interests me.
Over the years being on the Internet, I have made many friends in Africa and a couple of them are involved in the new Agri movement there. They give me first hand insight into the many challenges that they face including the lack of security as related to food.
I just thought that I would bring it out for some discussion. I live in Canada which is supposed to offer one of the highest standards of living in the World. You have no idea how many Canadians are at or below the poverty line.
I do what I can in my small way. I volunteer my cooking skills at the local food bank and help to organize food drives. It's overwhelming at times but I feel good about what I do.
Martin has some very valuable things to share and makes a lot of sense.
Thank you again for stopping by to share.
Kindest regards,
Paul.
I too am Canadian from BC. I was 31 years in Central America and this opened my eyes up to the world of need and poverty.
When I returned to Canada in 2001 I was astonished at all the changed that had taken place and one of them was the poverty levels that we had crashed into. As a kid growing up we didn't see to much of that in our home town because most of us were on the same level of income. There were a few families that needed help and the town ship always pitched in to help, that has all changed.
We new our neighbours today it is hard even to get close to your neighbours. I lived in one place for 9 years and never got to know my neighbours. I have more community on WA and of course my church community. Internationally I have more friends then in my own home town sad but true.
Linda
Hi, Linda.
I thought it was you, a fellow Canadian from out in B.C.
I want to thank you for 'watching my back' and speaking out. My blog here at Wa is my blog. I can write about what I choose to write about. It does not always have to be about what we are doing here at WA.
As I recall, 2000 - 2001 was a very important year as far as inflation was concerned. Gasoline went overnight from .47C per litre to .90C per litre. Other goods and services followed.
During this time until the melt down of 2008 there was something going on in the background to make a huge transfer of wealth (Mortgage Backed Securities).
Without going into too much detail...it was criminal (Martin shares some experiences as far as the criminality is concerned).
Listen...
We have lived. Hopefully we have learned. We continue to live. Hopefully we will continue to learn.
The Wealthy Affiliate program is a good place for people like you and I to be involved in. We should encourage others to look and get involved also.
I'm only a couple of levels into the Bootcamp training but the applications really work. I have been in the linking section...Phase 2 Lesson 8 for over two months now. Almost ready to move further.
If you want to understand what I am talking about...try something.
Remember how important the "About Me" training was?
Google "About (Your Name)" and see what you get.
Then Google "About Paul Mindra" and see where you arrive at.
Good exercise.
Also try Googling "Introduction to Wealthy Affiliate,"
"Wealthy Affiliate Open Education Project"
and see what you come up with.
I know that these keywords are not specific or common, but when they are ranked, then the posts that are written to support them will lead directly to the outcome that we want.
Touch base again soon.
With true respect and in friendship always, Linda.
Paul.
Thanks Paul I will do just that so very encouraging. I was away for a bit but I have my feet under me again Just about back in the 200 rang again it took no time at all. Good luck with the boot camp it is right up your alley you have a way with words.
will be around for a while I hope and we surly will be in touch sooner then later(o:
Linda
Cheers.
Paul.