Chaos theory and covid 19
As the weeks and months go by the entire planet is in a quandary of unimaginable depth...Predicting the direction of an epidemic is a major challenge. Likewise, predicting the course of an epidedemicc from an emerging virus is more so. It doesn't help that our emotions get in the way hoping still for a workable solution that flies in the face of recurrent data.
As this phenomenon of 2020 continues, it is being attacked with countless approaches to gain an understanding. From this determination will hopefully come a method of effective containment or control.
Some approaches have involved testing and finding or simulating laboratory conditions. Others have made comparisons of similar outbreaks. From these findings treatments of record are derived to hopefully find effective treatments to match for a cure.
A very important aspect involves finding an effevtive mode.This epidemic has its roots in the history of the Severe Aspirational Respitory System disease(SARS already well-known for avian flu and other similar characteristics in China. Other countries such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and of course China have been thoroughly researched.
It is hoped from this research that effective models can be built to test and lay out an effective cure. This will drive much of the action for the foreseeable future.
the validity of most predictive models relies on numerous parameters, involving biological and social characteristics often unknown or highly uncertain. Data of the COVID-19 epidemics in China, Japan, South Korea and Italy were used to build up deterministic models without strong hypothesis. These models were then applied to other countries to identify the closest scenarios in order to foresee their coming behavior. The results consistently display a pattern such as the hollowing of similar recurrent outbreaks. The succeeding image show an insect like symmetry in observed results.
An important part of Chaos Theory is called the Butterfly effect. Data often shows a twin pattern in it'displayed results Each day I pray for the brave researcheers work to eradicate this monstrous plague. Let us all send out our hopes and prayers about this event of our lifetime!
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I recall seeing something related to this in National Geographic. I researched "when the virus was first discovered" only after I failed to locate the article. Only "The History and Recent Advances in Coronavirus Discovery" went into full detail and stating that it was discovered by woman scientist in 1964 or 65. I trust it has an "Achilles Heel."
People just haven't accepted that COVID-19 is a virus, the flu is a virus, to this day we have yet to cure the flu. COVID-19 will simply mutate, this is the way with a virus, perhaps we will gain on one strain but beware the next. Our world is forever changed until science someday beats the virus, like it has disease, lets hope and pray it does with this decade. Good WA topic, makes us all think, thanks.
Joe
This year is indeed in a sense chaotic. Not only for the Covid-19 but also for the unpredictable situation in the Middle East and Southeast Asia!
It has been an interesting year -- that's for sure. Can we do a reboot and make it better??
~Debbi
Part of chaos theory deals with time paradoxes and travel Debbi. If we could do a "terminator" and g back to 2018 or 2017, would we be able to take preemptive action?
Indeed, Debbi. My take is that we would rest o our laurels and much of it would happen anyway.
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Good theory mike. The one aspect many fail to state is there have been no cue for the common cold or the standard flu which mutates annually. No vaccine or cure for Aids, H1Ni, Or coronavirus thats been around in various forms since the 70's. Best I feel we can do is a possible vaccine that may help a few but better that we find treatments and go back to standard living without fear.
You and I both remember the Hong Kong Flu in 1968-1970. I was in college, and if enough caught it we stayed home for awhile, then back to school.
At the very least this has made people more aware of hygiene, yet as I saw at the local gas station no social distancing and no masks, and no one saying anything.
Stay safe.
Bill
There have been presumptive errors in thinking in this entire epidemic, William. I fear it will take some time for good thinking to prevail!
Very true! Hope before long. Take care